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Tom Brady still missing from Pats practice
Tom Brady - QB - NE - Jan. 25 - 1:15 p.m. ET

Tom Brady (ankle) missed the portion of Patriots practice that's open to the media for the second consecutive day Friday.
He's expected to start Super Bowl XLII, but may be listed as questionable on next week's injury report. Donte' Stallworth says the Pats are prepared for the worst. "Bill (Belichick) actually brought me into his office earlier this morning and asked me if I wanted to move to quarterback," he joked. "We brought in the coach from Nebraska, Tom Osborne, I've met with him and we have the option going. Tom is going to go ahead and let me take the reins on Sunday."
Source: Boston Herald

Chargers QB Rivers has fully torn ACL
Philip Rivers - QB - SD - Jan. 21 - 5:54 p.m. ET

Philip Rivers' ACL is completely torn and will need reconstructive surgery.
Initial reports were he only had a partial tear. Rivers maintains he will be ready by the start of training camp, but previous timetables regarding these injuries indicate that's optimistic. Carson Palmer had a similarly timed injury and made it back for Week 1, but wasn't quite the same for awhile.
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune


 
Tony Dungy to remain as Colts' head coach
Colts Defense - TM - IND - Jan. 21 - 4:09 p.m. ET

Head coach Tony Dungy has decided to return to the Colts.
Owner Jim Irsay says that it's not necessarily just for one season, despite previous reports. The news is somewhat surprising after Jim Caldwell got a lucrative deal to stay with the Colts. Profootballtalk.com hints Caldwell was telling others last week that he was set to take over as head coach in 2008. The Colts will now pay $7.5 million to their top two coaches as they move into their new stadium. No word yet on whether Dungy will spend any extra time away from the team.
Source: nfl.com

Chad Johnson hints at trade demand
Chad Johnson - WR - CIN - Jan. 11 - 4:58 p.m. ET

Chad Johnson said on ESPN's Mike and Mike show Friday that he feels he was mistreated by the Bengals' organization last season.
"I was labeled selfish and a cancer, and it hurt," he said. "Fingers were pointed at me this year. If the team and the organization wants to further itself, I think you need to get rid of the problem. It hurt me. To do me that way and not to have my back. Things were said, and nobody came to my defense." That's pretty close to a trade demand. The situation between Johnson and the Bengals is set up to get ugly this offseason.
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Tom Brady near unanimous MVP winner
Tom Brady - QB - NE - Jan. 5 - 2:26 p.m. ET

Tom Brady was named the NFL's Most Valuable Player by the Associated Press.
The only other argument would have been for Randy Moss, but Brady took 49 out of a possible 50 votes. Brett Favre surprisingly got the other one. Brady, who threw a league record 50 touchdown passes for the highest scoring offense in NFL history. Five times he was the AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Brady is the first Patriot ever to be named MVP

Adrian Peterson takes Offensive ROY honors
Adrian Peterson - RB - MIN - Jan. 2 - 11:31 a.m. ET

Adrian Peterson was named Offensive Rookie of the Year by the Associated Press.
He won with 46 1/2 votes; Browns LT Joe Thomas was second with 3 1/2. Peterson needed to play in only 14 games and start nine to finish second in the NFL in rushing with 1341 yards. He scored 13 total TDs. Peterson's 5.6 yards per carry average was second behind Jerious Norwood's 6.0 among rushers with more than 100 carries. He led all running backs in 40+ yard runs.

Brady, Moss set records as Pats go 16-0
Tom Brady - QB - NE - Dec. 29 - 11:35 p.m. ET

Tom Brady completed 32-of-42 passes for 356 yards and two touchdowns, leading the Patriots on a 12-point second comeback to complete their regular season 16-0.
Brady connected with Randy Moss on a 65-yard touchdown strike to open the fourth quarter, breaking the single-season records for touchdowns at their respective positions in one big play. Brady was hit hard throughout, but he turned in one of his best stretches of the season in the second half by ducking out of constant pressure and finding receivers. Brady finishes with 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and 4,806 yards.

Larry Johnson - RB - Chiefs
The Chiefs may run a zone blocking scheme next year.

Willie Parker - RB - Steelers

Willie Parker "should be OK" to play next season, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

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Bowl Review: NFL Draft Stock

The 2007 college football season was disappointing. A school with two losses, both in-conference, took home the BCS Championship. Other than the FedEx Orange and the Tostitos Fiesta, few bowl games were worth watching if your team wasn't playing. Notre Dame didn't even make the postseason after going 3-9.


The NFL was paying attention. Scouts monitor player situations all year, but the true shot callers don't have time to watch college football during the NFL season. The scouts will be in coaches and GMs' ears, but first impressions mean plenty. Witness last year's No. 1 overall pick and who fell all the way to 22.

So let's take a look at who helped themselves and who didn't during the college football postseason. Since this is a fantasy site, we'll focus on skill players before moving into the heart of the pre-draft process.

Stock Rising

Rutgers RB Ray Rice
35-280-8.0-4 TDs, 2-15-7.5-0 TDs
International Bowl: Scarlet Knights 52, Ball State 30

Rice certainly had huge holes to run through against Ball State's 99th ranked rush defense. But the junior early entrant showed breakaway speed, executed in short yardage, and finished his runs. Rice eclipsed 2,000 yards for the season and posted the third highest rushing total for a bowl game ever. It may have locked up Rice's spot in the top two rounds. Despite his less than ideal size (5'9/205), zone-blocking teams will have interest.

Purdue TE Dustin Keller
7-150-21.4-1 TD
Motor City Bowl: Boilermakers 51, Central Michigan 48

Keller, who posted fantastic numbers in his last two seasons at Purdue, capped his career with a sterling effort. The highly athletic senior displayed his downfield abilities by racing for a 62-yard touchdown in the second quarter and showing off his sure hands with several catches underneath. At 6'3/240, Keller is undersized by every-down NFL standards and needs to polish his blocking, but at worst projects to be a zone-busting slot tight end at the next level.

Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart
23-253-11.0-1 TD, 2-29-14.5-1 TD
Sun Bowl: Ducks 56, South Florida 21

Oregon had dropped all its games after losing QB Dennis Dixon to a torn ACL in November, and Stewart took it upon himself to make redshirt freshman replacement Justin Roper's job easy against a supremely talented USF defense. Stewart shook off concerns about a lingering turf toe injury with his 71-yard touchdown run in the second quarter and another 41-yard burst in the third. The ideally built junior (5'11/234) announced his intentions to enter the draft last week and should be the No. 2 running back taken in April.

Michigan WR Adrian Arrington
9-153-17.0-2 TDs
Capitol One Bowl: Wolverines 41, Florida 35

Arrington, another junior-eligible who will forgo his final season, couldn't have saved his best collegiate performance for a better time. The 6'3/195-pound wideout had his way with 5'9 sophomore cornerback Markihe Anderson as the Wolves made sure retiring coach Lloyd Carr went out a winner. Arrington is raw and will be asked to add to his frame, but could sneak into the first day of the draft after his impressive last game.

East Carolina RB Chris Johnson
28-223-8.0-1 TD, 3-32-1 TD
Hawaii Bowl: Pirates 41, Boise State 38

Johnson likely earned himself a spot on an NFL roster in 2008 by pouring 408 all-purpose yards on the Boise Broncos. In addition to his rushing and receiving totals, the do-it-all senior brought back six kickoffs for 153 yards. Johnson is undersized at 5'10/195 and has struggled in short-yardage situations, but could have a future in the league as a No. 3 back and special teamer. He will be in attendance for the Senior Bowl, which invitees begin practicing for in less than two weeks.

Stock Falling

Hawaii QB Colt Brennan
22-38-169-0 TDs-3 INTs
Sugar Bowl: Georgia 41, Rainbow Warriors 10

If Georgia was the best team in the nation in 2007, Brennan wouldn't disagree. The ferocious Bulldogs' pass rush got to Brennan for eight sacks and forced him to fumble twice, one recovered for a Georgia touchdown, in addition to his trio of picks. Hawaii came into the game as the nation's No. 1 offense, and left to chants of "overrated." Any chance of Brennan being a first-round pick in April is likely gone now.

Purdue WR Dorien Bryant
5-65-13.0-0 TDs

His final numbers aren't anything to be ashamed of, but both of Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter's interceptions came on balls that bounced off Bryant's hands. The 5'10/170-pound senior projects as an NFL slot receiver, a position from which pro teams expect efficiency. While Bryant was a reliable pass catcher for most of his Purdue career, this performance will only hurt his stock on draft day. He'll try to make up for it during Senior Bowl week.

West Virginia RB Steve Slaton
1 rush, -2 yards, 1-2-2.0-0 TDs
Fiesta Bowl: Mountaineers 48, Oklahoma 28

Slaton, a junior, was originally expected to declare for the draft if coach Rich Rodriguez left for Michigan. Rodriguez departed, but Slaton won't pull the trigger. The scatback whose college career began so promising reached a low at the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Slaton, who was outplayed by freshman Noel Devine for most of the 2007 season, was knocked out of the game with a leg injury and West Virginia still rolled without him. He would've been lucky to be taken on the first day, although Slaton could find himself backing up Devine under new coach Bill Stewart, so it's debatable whether returning to school was a smart choice.
 

Update: In a surprise move, Slaton declared for the draft on Sunday night.


Virginia Tech WR Josh Morgan
3-30-10.0-0 TDs
Orange Bowl: Kansas 24, Hokies 21

The senior wideout got open for a deep ball from quarterback Sean Glennon that surely would've went for a score and ultimately won the game for Va Tech, but outright dropped it. The play may have summed up Morgan's career. At 6'1/220 with low-4.4 speed and crazy athleticism, Morgan always had the tools, but never became a good route runner or a reliable target in his four years. He's a late-round prospect at this stage.

Boise State RB Ian Johnson
4-11-2.8-0 TDs, 0 catches

Johnson finished his junior season nursing an ankle injury on the bench, as freshman Jeremy Avery carried most of the load against ECU. If Johnson comes out early, he'll have major durability concerns because of his size (5'11/194) and inability to stay on the field. Johnson missed two games earlier in the year due to a bruised kidney and saw his overall numbers nearly cut in half after a monster sophomore campaign. It's safe to say he shouldn't entertain the idea of going pro.
 


Season Recap: The QBs

During this most political of weeks, I just want to say that Rotoworld is the fantasy sports website for change. If you support us, we are going to find new ways of doing things. Clean up the internets and change all the old ways of covering fantasy sports.

Let's start with our season-in-review. Before moving on from the 2007 campaign, let's take one broad look back, and find out what this wacky season meant for fantasy options large and small. We're going to review every halfway decent offensive player in one sentence, all ranked by fantasy points scored. Hopefully this can be a reference people go back to during the offseason. I'll write a column on each skill position, plus look at some broader fantasy trends.

(And yes, the format inspiration came from FreeDarko, who is funnier and more original than we'll ever be. Let's see … appropriating someone else's message and calling it your own; we're getting the hang of this politics thing.)

Quarterback Season in Review

The Players are listed in total fantasy points scored

This list is unusually long because of all the quarterback injuries. A non-strike year record of 65 quarterbacks started a game this season, more than two per team! The Panthers and 49ers were the first two teams in NFL history to start four quarterbacks in the same season. For point of reference, there were only 50 starters all of last season.

1. Tom Brady, Patriots – Greatest quarterback season ever, all for a fourth-round pick.

2. Tony Romo, Cowboys - The Jasons (Garrett and Wittens) help Romo go from probably good to the fantasy elite.

3. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – Big plays and Willie's shortcomings lead to red zone fun; What motorcycle accident?

4. Peyton Manning, Colts – Considering all he lost (Harrison, Glenn, Ugoh), 2007 was the ultimate sign he's bulletproof.

5. Derek Anderson, Browns – Biggest surprise in the league started the season behind Charlie Frye, finished it ahead of Drew Brees.

6. Drew Brees, Saints – After four-game meltdown to open the year, Brees was back to his pass-happy ways.

7. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Huge increase in attempts leads to quiet career season.

8. Brett Favre, Packers – Wideouts go from weakness to strength as Favre completes the season no one thought he had left.

9. Carson Palmer, Bengals – Confounding, but 4,131 yards and 26 scores is quite a down year.

Tier Two

10. Kurt Warner, Cardinals – The Ken Whisenhunt Cardinals looked just the Dennis Green Cardinals, with better protection.

11. Eli Manning, Giants – More of the same, but he's durable.

12. Jay Cutler, Broncos – Best quarterback of the last three draft classes makes it work without much help from teammates.

13. Donovan McNabb, Eagles – Strong finish provides hope that the old McNabb is buried beneath the headlines.

14. Philip Rivers, Chargers – The only quarterback more inconsistent than Eli.

15. David Garrard, Jaguars – A quarterback you can win with, in real life and fantasy.

16. Jon Kitna, Lions – The most unimpressive 4,000 passing yards since he did it last season.

Tier Three

17. Jeff Garcia, Bucs – Maxed out his potential, which isn't a good sign for next year.

18. Vince Young, Titans – With his running numbers down and passing numbers embarrassing, Young's second season was a career clouding worst-case scenario.

19. Jason Campbell, Redskins – Flashed progress before season-ending knee injury; a keeper.

Tier Four

20. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings – Vince Young with less durability, which may or may not be a compliment.

21. Sage Rosenfels, Texans - The best Jewish quarterback since Jay Fiedler.

22. Marc Bulger, Rams – Biggest position bust wasn't in the top-30 per-game when healthy.

23. Damon Huard, Chiefs – Market correction before giving way to Brodie Croyle, who was worse.

24. Matt Schaub, Texans – Couldn't stay healthy, but 7.8 YPA is a sign of better things to come.

25. Chad Pennington, Jets – Poorly timed picks, but the numbers before benched were nearly identical to the year before.

26. Cleo Lemon, Dolphins – Probably won't start seven games again, but proved he belongs.

27. Joey Harrington, Falcons – Tastes like a starter, but breaks like a little girl.

Tier Five

28. Brian Griese, Bears – Four week run as a fantasy savior is a distant memory after four-pick game and knee injury.

29. Kyle Boller, Ravens – Improved, but not enough to escape a career backup role.

30. Chris Redman, Falcons – Bobby Petrino's lasting legacy in the NFL.

31. Quinn Gray, Jaguars – After miserable start, did a fair David Garrard imitation.

32. Trent Edwards, Bills – Put up the most yards ever for a third-round rookie quarterback with no receiver help, which counts for something.

33. Josh McCown, Raiders – Predictably sub-mediocre on his final chance as a starter.

34. Daunte Culpepper, Raiders – Solid final two starts before moronic practice injury should keep him in the league.

35. Kellen Clemens, Jets – Quarterback of the future tag in question now.

36. Todd Collins, Redskins – The Damon Huard of 2007, with top-15 per-game numbers.

37. Jake Delhomme, Panthers – Tommy John surgery puts future in peril.

38. Luke McCown, Bucs – The McCown to watch in 2008.

39. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs – Be afraid Chiefs fans – at least he has Kelli.

40. J.P. Losman, Bills – Improved 2006 proved to be a mirage.

41. Trent Dilfer, 49ers – Better on NFL Network than on the field.

42. Rex Grossman, Bears – Late-season run before knee injury was better, but don't get carried away.

Tier Everyone else

43. Gus Frerotte, Rams – Pulled off a rare five-interception game.

44. Trent Green, Dolphins – Career probably over after another head injury.

45. Vinny Testaverde, Panthers – Better than David Carr!

46. Shaun Hill, 49ers – Shockingly competent three-game run gives him a shot in '08.

47. A.J. Feeley, Eagles – Hero of irrational Eagles fans everywhere ultimately looked like a backup.

48. David Carr, Panthers – There is ladder extending miles below rock bottom that one must take to get to David Carr's 2007 season.

49. Alex Smith, 49ers - Shoulder injury requiring surgery hopefully explains his dreadful play. (Can Mike Martz turn him around?

50. Kyle Orton, Bears – Neckbeard and a few late wins could give him a role in 2008.

51. Steve McNair, Ravens – Injured and dink-and-dunking is a depressing way to go out.

52. Troy Smith, Ravens – Earned valuable playing time down the stretch.

53. Matt Moore, Panthers – Undrafted players was most impressive rookie quarterback in league.

54. Matt Leinart, Cardinals – Abysmal start and worth ethic are a bigger worries than his collarbone injury.

55. Kelly Holcomb, Vikings – Worse than Brooks Bollinger, we think.

56. Seneca Wallace, Seahawks – Only played in meaningless Week 17 games.

57. Brooks Bollinger, Vikings – I probably should have stopped the list at fifty.

58. John Beck, Dolphins – Margin for error is slim at age 27 after depressing rookie season.

59. Tim Rattay, Cardinals – Best goal-line quarterback in the league.

60. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Great comeback against Cowboys, but has been hurt in two significant appearances as a pro.

61. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders- Solid final game was nice way offseason present for Raiders.

62. Kerry Collins, Titans – Led the team to a few wins when asked.

63. Charlie Batch, Steelers – Lucky that Roethlisberger stayed healthy.

64. Patrick Ramsey, Broncos – Yep, still in the league.

65. Chris Weinke, 49ers – Better than David Carr!

66. Jim Sorgi, Colts – Showed why he's a backup in Week 17.

67. Byron Leftwich, Falcons – Hard to believe he's fallen this far.

68. Craig Nall, Packers – Being Favre's buddy is good work if you can get it.

69. Matt Cassell, Patriots – Matt Gutierrez nipping at his heels.

70. J.T. O'Sullivan, Lions – Mike Martz departure ends his chance to play.

71. Bruce Gradkowski, Bucs – Passed by Luke McCown.

72. Brad Johnson, Cowboys – Double date with Ashlee?

73. Brock Berlin, Rams – The most improbable starter of the season looked like it.

74. Andrew Walter, Raiders- Fourth on the Raiders depth chart is no way to go through life.

75. Brady Quinn, Browns – Anderson's emergence will make him earn any playing time


Keeping Good Company

Early Monday morni ng, 20 NFL franchises arrived at work, ready to begin planning for next year. Keeper league owners should do the same.

League rules vary widely, but year-round owners can't afford to hibernate until August. There are trades to be considered, draft picks to be dealt, and keeper decisions to be made. If we had to make those decisions this week, here is how Rotoworld would rank the top-50 fantasy keepers, primarily concerned with 2008 value. We'll count down #30-50 today, followed by the top-30 on Friday.

Not on the list

(In no particular order)

Santana Moss, Marvin Harrison, Javon Walker, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Taylor, Thomas Jones, Selvin Young, Travis Henry, Derrick Ward, Tony Scheffler, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Donovan McNabb, Cedric Benson, Kevin Jones, Jon Kitna, Chester Taylor, DJ Hackett, Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Vernon Davis, Rudi Johnson, Carnell Williams, DeAngelo Williams, DeShaun Foster, Jerious Norwood, Deion Branch.

Just Missed

Roddy White, Falcons - The only man other than Chris Redman that will miss Bobby Petrino. He could use a quarterback.

Earnest Graham, Bucs - He's earned a big role, but I don't trust Jon Gruden to give him one. Cadillac Williams' return looms.

Jason Witten, Cowboys - I have a hard time keeping a tight end over wideouts and running backs, even if he finished first at the position.

Donald Driver, Packers - Greg Jennings and James Jones will continue to erode his production.

Hines Ward, Steelers - Safe, but on the decline. Santonio Holmes is the Steeler wideout to own.

Lee Evans, Bills - Quarterback situation could bring him down.

Jay Cutler, Broncos - Closer to superstardom than most realize.

Brett Favre, Packers - Age hurts him in a keeper league.

Top 50 Keepers

50. Calvin Johnson, Lions – Disappointing rookie season, but don't overreact. 756 yards and four scores when he didn't know the playbook is a sign of much better days ahead. Even without Mike Martz.

49. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - NFL active leader in yards-per-attempt still needs more of them. Roethlisberger finished only 16th in pass attempts behind guys like Jason Campbell, hurting his margin for error.

48. Justin Fargas, Raiders - He's come a long way. I suspect Fargas will be Oakland's starter next season. If not, zone-blocking teams like Houston will take a hard look at him.

47. Kellen Winslow, Browns - If he did all that coming off microfracture surgery …

46. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets - The poor man's Houshmandzadeh is bound to score more in 2008.

45. Laurence Maroney, Patriots - Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and Tom Brady's dominance all conspire to make Maroney an inconsistent option. But he's going to get better and the starting runner on the Patriots has value.

44. Wes Welker, Patriots - A rich man's Troy Brown. 2007 was his ceiling, but he'll be a safe pick in New England as long as Brady is healthy.

43. Roy Williams, Lions - Worry more about the lack of development than the knee injury. Also worry about the loss of Mike Martz, although perhaps it will mean fewer targets for Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey.

42. Jamal Lewis, Browns - I know he deserves to be higher, but how can we just ignore 2005-2006? If Lewis leaves Cleveland, all bets are off.

41. Santonio Holmes, Steelers - Twelfth in per-game numbers at wideout.

40. Greg Jennings, Packers - He won't keep scoring a touchdown a game, but he's the only Packer capable of running down Favre's deep balls.

39. Plaxico Burress, Giants - Would be nice to see what he could do at "100%", but that doesn't seem likely to happen soon.

38. Torry Holt, Rams - He's in decline, but you can still set your watch by his numbers.

37. Antonio Gates, Chargers - A lot to be said for consistency. He did it with very little help from his wideouts and quarterback.

36. Reggie Bush, Saints - Value candidate or committee back? Bush needs to make his touches count more, because they are likely to take a hit per-game in 2008.

35. LenDale White, Titans - At worst, he's a reliable low-level RB2. Subtract twenty pounds and we might have something more.

34. Michael Turner, Chargers - We all love the unknown, perhaps a little too much. Turner is a free agent and has the skills to land a big-time starting job, but where would he fit? Houston sounds perfect. After that, Denver, Arizona, Seattle, Chicago, Detroit, and Cincinnati could be fits.

33. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins - Players seem to return faster and better from ACL surgeries every year. This rank is assuming that we only get 80% of Ronnie in 2008.

32. Drew Brees, Saints - Sean Payton is the new Mike Martz. That gives Brees a huge margin for error and a chance to break the NFL completions record. Again. I like keeping quarterbacks more than drafting them early because position scarcity is usually a bigger issue in keeper leagues.

31. Carson Palmer, Bengals - Sometimes, you have to trust your belief in talent. It wasn't a banner Palmer year, but I'll take 4,130 yards and 26 scores in a down year anytime. He will be the best fantasy quarterback one of these years.
 

Top 30 Keepers

We ranked keepers #31-50 on Thursday; Now it's time for the big boys. If you are a looking for more time-wasting year-end lists, head over to Pancake Blocks for our top-ten busts of the season.

Top 30 Keepers

30. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals - Despite playing through injuries, he still wound up in the top-12 receivers in per-game numbers. A switch back to Matt Leinart would be a concern, but not devastating.

29. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - With Fred Taylor earning another year in a committee, MoJo's top-five talent will have to wait to be fully realized.

28. Tony Romo, Cowboys - Another receiver would be nice, but Romo is locked and loaded for a long run among the fantasy elite.

27. Ryan Grant, Packers - The Packers could bring in competition, but they are probably happy with their young guys backing up Grant. Like Willie Parker, he needs to work on gaining four-to-five yards on the plays he doesn't gain fifty.

26. Brandon Jacobs, Giants - Sure, I've got a weakness for The Train. There are many reasons not to keep him, like the injuries, his hands, and the presence of Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw.

But through all the disappointment, Jacobs was third in the NFL in rushing yards-per-game, and eighth in fantasy points per-game at running back. He can be a good RB2 even without 20 carries a game.

25. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals – Who's his agent? Housh reportedly wasn't happy about his contract this season, and is likely to make more noise in the offseason if he doesn't get a new deal. Look for an extension to happen.

24. Steve Smith, Panthers- Another PPR power. Jake Delhomme will help, but he's no sure thing after major shoulder surgery. Smith's numbers this season wound up being not too different than 2006 anyhow.

Smith is a great NFL receiver who has been overrated in fantasy leagues, including by myself. He's topped 1,200 yards once in seven seasons. He's topped eight touchdowns once. He has four good seasons, plus an injured year, since he emerged. In three of the four, he's been Donald Driver. Good, not great. He has some monster years left, but the only advantage he has over Marques Colston and Brandon Marshall is that he's done it for longer.

23. Marques Colston, Saints - So much for that sophomore slump. I love physical possession receiver stars like Colston because they are often more consistent week-to-week and year-to-year.

22. Brandon Marshall, Broncos - Tough guy to rank. Players like Steve Smith and Houshmandzadeh have rarely, if ever, reached the highs Marshall did in his second season. The Broncos will probably dump Javon Walker, although it's hard to imagine The Beast getting more targets after leading the league. Marshall has a slightly higher ceiling and lower floor than the other receivers ranked around him. We'll take the risk.

21. Marion Barber, Cowboys - Julius Jones is probably leaving. The only slight concern is that the Cowboys still seem to worry that Barber can't hold up to 350 touches. But he scores plenty with 250.

20. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - Even if he comes back as the old L.J., which is a huge question mark, he needs some teammates to help him score.

19. Peyton Manning, Colts - His worst season of the decade was in 2005: 3,745 yards and 28 touchdowns during a year he rested the last two weeks. Absolutely no risk in keeping him.


18. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals - Put up exactly the same numbers in 2005 and 2007: 1,409 yards and ten scores. A healthy Matt Leinart and Anquan Boldin could cut into next year some, but he's a safe WR1.

17. Willie Parker, Steelers - All reports indicate that he'll make a full recovery. Parker was making strides in rounding out his game this year, but still doesn't help much on passing downs.

16. Willis McGahee, Ravens - Needs some help at quarterback and head coach, but it can't get much worse. An young offensive line will keep him consistent.

15. Andre Johnson, Texans - The Texans have a passing game! The Texans have other receivers than A.J.! Johnson was on pace for 1,512 yards and 15 scores if he had avoided the knee injury.

14. Terrell Owens, Cowboys - Will be 35 next season, coming off a major injury. He's shown no signs of decline, but it has to happen eventually - right?

13. Chad Johnson, Bengals – Set a career high in yards in down year. As safe as it gets – if he stays in Cincy. Johnson may request a trade in the offseason, but the most likely scenario is a return to the Bengals.

12. Reggie Wayne, Colts - Like Addai at running back, there is virtually no downside in keeping Wayne. You can't ask for much more.

11. Braylon Edwards, Browns - A switch to Brady Quinn could slow down numbers, but Edwards should be a top-10 wideout for the next eight years.

10. Marshawn Lynch, Bills - If Trent Edwards shows normal progression, Lynch should have far more chances to score next year.

9. Clinton Portis, Redskins - Improved receiving numbers helped Portis back to the land of the RB1s. Hopefully Gibbs doesn't wear him out during the playoff run.

8. Tom Brady, Patriots - Tricky. Brady had never topped 30 touchdowns in his career before this season, but the Patriots aren't going to turn into a run-first team suddenly. Expect a significant decline, but he's still the favorite to be the top quarterback next year.

7. Frank Gore, 49ers - Sixth in yards-per-scrimmage, ninth among running backs in fantasy points, and a 4.2 ypc average on one of the worst offenses of the decade. You think we're jumping off the bandwagon after that?

6. Randy Moss, Patriots - We suspect he'll be back with New England on a short-term, high paying deal.

5. Joseph Addai, Colts – He faded late, and hasn't quite proven he can carry the ball 300 times yet. On the Colts, he doesn't really need to in order to score 15 times.
Otherwise, he has the least amount of downside of anyone after LT2. On the Colts, he doesn't really need to in order to score 15 times.

4. Steven Jackson, Rams - Occasionally inconsistent, but Jackson ran with the best aggression of his career down the stretch of 2007. That's a great sign considering the lack of offensive line help.

3. Brian Westbrook, Eagles - Westbrook carried my office league team this season, and I'd vote for him as the most valuable non-QB in the NFL this season. So why does my gut want to rank Addai and Steven Jackson higher?

It shouldn't be the durability question. He's small, but he's only missed two games combined the last two seasons. News maven Evan Silva tires of the weekly questionable tag, but I can overlook that for the modern day Marshall Faulk. I'm going to debate spots spots two-through-five all offseason. For now, Westbrook gets the nod because only one other player was within 450 total yards of him.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Riskier than the rest of the top-five, but he's the best chance to go completely bananas and set single-season records.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – Peterson's slow finish will end any debate for the top spot in 2008

 

 

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